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Project information

Modeling of New Supply Curves in the Day-Ahead Market and Improvement of Forecasting Models in the Real-Time Constraints Markets

J. Portela A. Muñoz E. Insunza-Díaz

April 2025 - November 2025

Funding entity Endesa Medios y Sistemas S.L


In 2025, regulatory changes affecting the day-ahead electricity market led to the elimination of Complex Conditions (CIM) in bids as of March 2025. These were replaced by new complex conditions: Scalable Complex Orders and Block Offers. Additionally, a quarter-hourly regime will be introduced for this market in June 2025. Therefore, this project addresses a redefinition of the modeling of supply curves and a study of the impact of the new bidding conditions on market clearing.


Layman's summary: In 2025, the day-ahead electricity market changes: CIM are removed and new bidding conditions (Scalable Complex Orders and Blocks) are introduced, along with a quarter-hourly regime. This project analyzes their impact on clearing and bid curve modeling.



Techniques employed: Advanced Time series models. Functional Data. Recurrent Neural Networks.



HADES_2025_S2